A decade following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the political, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in universities but hardly any government figures or advocates are willing to participate with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two articles that strive for objectivity in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and societal data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions cover national emblems, duties, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the idea that there could be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters report they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has possesses valuable insights to gain from the other's arguments."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should join the debate, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
